While the market still faces continuing economic concerns many indicators are turning more positive and many believe the deep recession is about to end. Corporate profits are mostly beating expectations. Job losses are horrific for those laid off, but many corporations have dramatically cut costs, increased profits and are getting in position for potentially even faster earnings growth once the economy turns up. The stock market historically looks out 6-9 months and it likes what it sees for corporate earnings growth in many sectors.

While the market most likely will have stalls and suffer from some profit taking, the overall outlook over the next year seems very positive.

We do not recommend just index returns but funds that have historically consistently outperformed the "dumb" indexes or ETFs with positive Alpha (outperformance vs. risk taken).

We recommend opportunities for recovery from the large losses over the last 2 years, where even investments with the best long-term track records suffered. There was almost no place to avoid large losses other than low or no yielding cash. We have encouraged patience and not to bail out of solid choices and lock in market loses. Those that stayed invested benefited from the current strong rally. As of 8/3/09 even the "dumb" S&P500 Index is up 50% from its March low.

We also continue to also suggest "participate yet protect" strategies for at least some of your long-term assets. These alternatives were very valuable in the market decline. While we believe we are entering a very favorable time to be in carefully selected investments with proven track records of outperforming index investing, we also suggest protection strategies to protect against another possible future market crisis.

I continue to be very proactive, suggesting changes as warranted to take charge of investment opportunities - not be a victim of static allocations, models or just average index investing.

In my ongoing extensive monitoring our recommendations I also monitor the views of many other advisors and analysts. More and more are turning optimistic about the current opportunities in the equity markets.

Stock Market Outlook - The contemporary character of the stock market seems eerily similar to the 1982 recovery. The 1982 recession was the last to be tagged as the "worst since the Great Depression." It, too, occurred after a significant surge in energy prices and after a decade of massive and widespread debt growth. It also was associated with a rise in the unemployment rate above 10 percent and by significant "toxic debts" in the lending industry associated with the busting of the farming, oil, and Third World economic booms... and it experienced a collapse in confidence, intense fears, and a legacy of a "dominance of doubt"!

Against this backdrop, the stock market in August 1982 surged by almost 40 percent in about 45 trading days (nearly identical to the stock market surge experienced during the first 45 days off its low earlier this year)! The 1982 stock market then idled sideways for the next several months (as it did this year in May). Doubts persist today about any economic and market recovery, just as they did after the initial bear market-ending surge in late 1982. Indeed, it was not until the summer of 1983 (after the stock market had advanced about 75 percent from its recession low) that a majority of investors finally agreed the recession had ended.

We caution investors against waiting too long before returning to the stock market, less you end up with a decision many investors faced in the summer of 1983 when stock prices had already risen by 75 percent.

The dominance of doubt evident today may make the S&P 500 recovery from 700 to 1000 much more difficult than it may prove from 1000 to 1300. At some point, bears will finally be converted and agree the recession has ended, which could bring fresh cash to the stock market rally. Thus far, the stock market has advanced only because most have backed away from a depression outcome and selling pressures have abated. Further rallies seem likely, however, as buyers emerge once a consensus begins to embrace a sustainable economic recovery."

In an extensive discussion of current "profit leverage" of U.S. companies, Wells forecasts "about a 45 percent advance in non financials profits in the coming year" Wells suggests that the surge in fear that started with the subprime crisis (not to mention fear of another Great Depression and the Lehman failure crisis) caused "U.S. businesses to act in ways that may now lead to a "profit-leveraged" bull market"

When all is said and done the economy will have lost almost 5% of its jobs, more than any post war recession. The recession so far has extended to 18 months, also a post war record. Fortunately, I now believe that the economy has turned the corner, and the early stage of the economic recovery will be stronger than many are currently anticipating. Early economic indicators have supported this view for some time, while some earnings reports and conference calls for the second quarter are finally beginning to support this view as well.

Jonathan Simon says, "This is one of the best opportunities for long-term appreciation potential in my 21 years of managing money."

Following the last nine bear markets, the S&P500 has never failed to return to its previous all-time high, taking an average of just 2.2 years to get there" Source: J.P. Morgan 3Q2009 Guide to the Markets.

"Participate yet Protect"- Most of our clients need reasonable growth to fund 20-30 years of active, healthy retirement and need some protection strategies from large market losses. A 65-year old American husband and wife couple has a 50% chance that one of them will live at least 27 years to age 92 (Source: On Wall Street, SOA).